British wholesale gas prices fell on Monday morning due to mild weather, strong wind speeds and high gas imports from Norway, while Dutch prices were mixed amid uncertainties around France’s nuclear output.
The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub was up 2.60 euros at 48.90 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 0922 GMT, according to Refinitiv Eikon data. The day-ahead contract was down 0.60 euros at 49.50 euros/MWh.
The British day-ahead contract was 8.00 pence lower at 124.00 pence per therm.
“We take a bearish view today for NBP DA (UK day-ahead) with the contract likely correcting down after the strong gains on Friday,” said Refinitiv’s senior gas analyst Marina Tsygankova.
“The weather forecast adjusted to notably milder over the weekend suggesting warmer next week than previously assumed,” Tsygankova said.
Strong winds also put pressure on UK gas prices. Peak wind generation was expected at around 17.5 gigawatt (GW) on Monday and 16 GW on Tuesday, out of a total metered capacity of more than 22 GW, Elexon data showed.
The British gas system was almost 11 millions of cubic metres (mcm) oversupplied this morning, National Gas data showed.
Meanwhile, the Dutch front-month contract has risen almost 15% from last Monday, mainly due to strikes by French workers over proposed changes to pension system.
French power supply was reduced by 12.4 GW at nuclear, thermal and hydropower plants on Sunday due to the strikes, a CGT union spokesperson told Reuters
That equates to 24% of current total power supply, data from grid operator RTE showed.
European gas prices however could remain volatile this year analysts at Fitch Ratings said on Monday.
“We expect the market in Europe to be balanced in 2023, although price volatility may persist, driven by the availability of LNG in global markets and further efforts to curb demand by industrial and residential users,” the analysts said.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was 2.62 euro lower at 97.18 euros a tonne.