Friday, December 8, 2023

Calvin Ridley Player Prop Pick: Bet for Titans vs Jaguars

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Via David Rosenblum/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley (0) runs out on the field before the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Jacksonville Jaguars on November 12, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida.

Calvin Ridley Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Titans vs. Jaguars | 1 p.m. ET

Calvin Ridley’s performance has been below expectations since his impressive debut in Week 1 when he recorded 11 catches for 102 yards against the Colts. He has been inconsistent throughout the season, and his performance has fluctuated every week.

Although his average of 52.5 receiving yards is higher than the prop line, he has only managed to exceed this line in three out of the Jaguars’ 10 games this season. However, considering the Titans’ vulnerability against the pass, it could be an excellent opportunity to take a chance on him rebounding significantly.

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As a team, the Titans rank 28th in Expected Points Added Allowed per dropback and allow the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. The Titans also allow the fourth-highest percentage of targets to wide receivers, according to RotoBaller. Additionally, they rank 32nd against passes to the left and 28th in DVOA against right directional passes.

Without their best safety, Kevin Byard, who’s now on the Eagles, the Titans have been getting burned by yards after catch, ranking 30th in DVOA to deep passes, according to FTN Network.

Ridley’s strengths align with the Titans’ evident weakness in defending outside, as he is primarily being used as the “X” receiver, running 84% of his routes on the perimeter. Moreover, his Average Depth of Target, which is the highest on the team at 13.4, makes him a promising player for big plays.

With the success outside receivers have had against the Titans, I find it likely Ridley will see opportunities to surpass his receiving prop this week.

Pick: Calvin Ridley Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115 | BetMGM)

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