Sunday, February 25, 2024

Marquette vs. Xavier prediction, odds, time: 2023 Big East Tournament final picks, bets by proven model

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The 2023 Big East Tournament champion will be decided on Saturday evening. Madison Square Garden hosts a showdown between the No. 1 seed Marquette Golden Eagles and the No. 2 seed Xavier Musketeers. Marquette is 27-6 overall and 19-3 against Big East foes this season, advancing to the final with a win over UConn on Friday. Xavier is 25-8 overall and 17-5 in Big East games, including a 1-1 mark against Marquette.

Tipoff is at 6:30 p.m. ET in New York. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Golden Eagles as 1.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 154 in the latest Xavier vs. Marquette odds. Before locking in any Marquette vs. Xavier picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters conference tournament week 76-51 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,200 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now the model has zeroed in on Marquette vs. Xavier and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several college basketball odds and betting lines for Xavier vs. Marquette:

  • Xavier vs. Marquette spread: Marquette -1.5
  • Xavier vs. Marquette over/under: 154 points
  • Xavier vs. Marquette money line: Marquette -125, Xavier +105
  • Xavier: The Musketeers are 13-9 against the spread in Big East games
  • Marquette: The Golden Eagles are 14-8 against the spread in Big East games
  • Xavier vs. Marquette picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Xavier Musketeers

Why Xavier can cover

Xavier’s highly-explosive offense is led by Souley Boum and Colby Jones. The duo combined for 37 points in the semifinal win over Creighton, and each averages more than 15 points per game this season. Xavier is in the top 10 of the country in both shooting efficiency and adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Musketeers are in the top five of the nation in making 40% of 3-point attempts. Xavier also leads the Big East in field goal percentage (49%) and leads the country with nearly 20 assists per game. The Musketeers are in the top four of the Big East in free throw rate and offensive rebound rate, and Marquette’s defense is potentially vulnerable. 

The Golden Eagles are in the bottom four of the conference in shooting efficiency allowed and defensive rebound rate, with Marquette posting the worst 2-point defense in the Big East. On the other end, Xavier has a huge edge on the glass, with the Musketeers ranking No. 2 in the Big East in defensive rebound rate and the Golden Eagles securing fewer than 27% of missed shots on the offensive glass.

Why Marquette can cover

Marquette’s offense is dynamic and balanced this season. The Golden Eagles have four players averaging in double figures, with sophomore guard Kam Jones leading the way with 15.1 points per game on 59% true shooting. Marquette is in the top eight of the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, including the No. 1 mark in the Big East. Shaka Smart’s team is in the top 10 nationally in shooting efficiency, headlined by the No. 1 mark in the land at 59% inside the arc. Marquette is also shooting 36% from 3-point range during conference play, and the Golden Eagles have brilliant supporting metrics. 

Marquette averages more than 17 assists per game, No. 2 in the Big East, and leads the conference with a 14% turnover rate and an 8% live-ball turnover rate. Marquette committed only nine turnovers in the semifinal win over UConn, and the Golden Eagles are facing a Xavier defense that ranks in the bottom three of the Big East in turnover creation rate, steal rate and block rate this season.

How to make Xavier vs. Marquette picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 159 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine

So who wins Marquette vs. Xavier? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.  

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