Monday, February 26, 2024

NFL Playoff Betting: Super Bowl 58 running back player props, including Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

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• RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs: Anytime TD (-115)

• RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: First drive catch (+140 Fanduel)

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Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs: Anytime TD (-115)

Pacheco has been the lead back for this offense all season, and once it gets down to the goal line, he remains the main ball carrier. He’s scored a touchdown in seven straight games, and if the Chiefs get inside the red zone, that trend should continue. This season, Pacheco has a 72.5% rushing share inside the 10-yard line. 

The 49ers have been vulnerable to the run this playoffs, as evidenced by the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions‘ strong rushing attacks in back-to-back weeks. Due to how susceptible they are, if the Chiefs get close to the goal line, look to them to exploit that weakness with Pacheco.


Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: First drive catch (+140 Fanduel)

This is a market available on Fanduel and DraftKings, but the odds are better on Fanduel. On the year, McCaffrey has had a catch on the first drive of the game in 10-of-18 games (55%). He’s also had a catch in the first drive in three of his last five games, excluding Week 18. Due to how slow the 49ers have been starting in these playoffs, I have a feeling that Shanahan is going to want to get the ball to the OPOY as early as he can, whether that is a carry or a screen pass.


Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers: Under 1.5 rush attempts (-110)

This is really a bet on McCaffrey’s health, and given that he’s had two weeks to recover from whatever injuries he’s suffered in the regular season and playoffs, I don’t think we’ll see much of Mitchell in this game. For starters, in the Packers game, Mitchell played one snap. While the game script was likely the biggest cause of that, it really shows that San Francisco doesn’t take McCaffrey off the field. Mitchell didn’t even record a carry last game until CMC got hurt in the fourth quarter, and all four of his carries came after that.

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