Wednesday, February 21, 2024

NFL Week 14 Betting Preview: Time to buy the Bills

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Josh Allen leads a Bills’ offense that rolled to 34 points and moved the ball well through the air at Philadelphia. Buffalo is coming off a bye week while the Chiefs try to rebound from a road defeat.

Can Buffalo win three or even four of its remaining five games? After KC, the Bills are home for Dallas, at the Chargers, home for the Patriots and at the Dolphins.

Tall task.

The Bills just have more talent available than KC, and are certainly the more desperate team. They’re fifth in both passing and rushing EPA and average 260 passing yards per game (also fifth in the NFL).

It’s Buffalo vs. Patrick Mahomes and whatever Mahomes can coax out of his teammates.

We’ll take a shot with the Bills — and maybe peruse the various sportsbooks for win totals, postseason odds and sprinkle a little belief on a Super Bowl winner wager (+3500 at FanDuel late in the week).

The bet: Same-game teaser parlay, Bills +7.5 parlayed with Josh Allen passing yards over 225 (odds of -120 at FanDuel).


THEY SAID IT

“We don’t want to be in situations like this but we feel like we’ve been in this situation before, and it has produced some of our best football.”

Bills quarterback Josh Allen


BONUS COMBO

Rams at Ravens, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Ravens -7.5, total 40.5 (FanDuel).

Matt Stafford is still a quality NFL quarterback, and when he’s fully healthy he’s still among the top third in the league.

With a Kyren Williams-led rushing attack and an improving defense, LA looks like a playoff team.

The Ravens are still figuring out the right buttons to push since losing standout tight end Mark Andrews to an ankle injury.

Lamar Jackson lost his security blanket and the offense now will rely on Jackson’s passing accuracy in the face of a pass rush led by fearsome Aaron Donald.

Yes, the Baltimore defense is typically stout as the season grinds into December, but another vaunted defense, the Browns, posed little trouble for LA last week.

The play: Rams +7.5 (-118 at FanDuel).


PROP CORNER

This prop feels a little “Grinchy” as the holidays roll toward us, but the weather outside looks frightful.

The overwhelming choice (-9000!!) for Rookie of the Year, C.J. Stroud, is a great story. He’s been poised and has shown all the traits of a terrific leader.

This week, he just needs to lead Houston to a win over the New York Jets.

He doesn’t need to take crazy shots downfield in a game expected to be played in the rain — and perhaps more than a little wind.

The Texans should be able to control the Jets and returning starter Zach Wilson on Sunday with a measured, if a little boring, attack.

The New York secondary is still very competent, and no one — not even the Grinch — wants to risk a pick-6.

Prop play: Texans QB C.J. Stroud under 226.5 passing yards. (-114 at FanDuel).

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