Wednesday, February 21, 2024

NFL Week 14: Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers betting picks, preview

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Denver visits Los Angeles a game ahead of the Chargers in the AFC West (and conference) standings. They have quickly become a hot team after a very slow start, but there is still a lot of work to be done by both of these teams if they are going to make the playoffs. This could be an elimination game for the Chargers who just can’t get out of their own way. 

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends and Odds 

Sunday, Dec. 10, 2023 —  4:25 p.m. ET 
Odds: Los Angeles -2.5, Over/under 44, Denver +120 | Los Angeles -142

The Chargers are generally considered the most disappointing team in the NFL. I have no argument there. They have already lost three times this season as a favorite so getting behind them, even at home is not an enticing idea. They do not even merit the full three points even though they have a quarterback advantage with Justin Herbert. Folks love him but it is hard to trust anything else about this team. 

Picks for Denver vs. Los Angeles

Denver +2.5; Quentin Johnston 40+ Yards (+165)

This small number is so inviting, especially for a home favorite, but I am not going to bite. It would be a “shame on me” kind of situation. I can lean into Denver because the Chargers are not scoring much these days (just six points last time out) and I trust the combo of quarterback Russell Wilson and head coach Sean Payton to get the most out of the Denver offense and not make mistakes. I know that was not the case last week against Houston, but after throwing a couple of interceptions on October 12 against Kansas City, Wilson went five games without another one. He can process his mistakes and learn from them. Denver can keep things pretty conservative and the offense has not given up more than 22 points in eight games. That 70 burger they gave up against Miami is never going to not make their stats look terrible but we have to look past it. 

Chargers rookie receiver Quentin Johnston has seen his role grow as the season has progressed. Last week he saw his most targets, tied his highest number of catches (5), and set a new high for receiving yards (52). He can scale it back a little from those numbers and still cash this prop. L.A. is probably chasing most of the game so the game script will support him being heavily involved too. 

Denver is getting high interest from the market in both tickets and money so far. That means this game might get closer and closer to a pick’em as kickoff approaches. I think they win the game outright so a Moneyline play at any time is a great way to play it. Or a teaser.

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