Wednesday, February 21, 2024

NFL Week 14: Sports Betting, No Sex, Housing Market Woes

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ITEM: Meredith Whitney — who predicted the 2008 financial crisis — said on CNBC’s Squawk Box this week that sports betting is to blame for A) men being single, B) men having less sex, and C) as a result of “A” and “B” these same men won’t be forming families and buying houses, thereby tanking the housing market.

Hmmmmph.

Honestly, I think this is just the beginning. You ask me, sports betting is the root cause of dozens of societal and economic ills. Here are but a few. (Please note I predicted the 1996 financial crisis.) (Editor’s note: There was no 1996 financial crisis.)

Climate change: You ever feel how hot your phone gets when you’re busy live-betting Thursday Night Football? Well, where do you think that heat goes? It doesn’t just dissipate. My models show live-betting adds .03 degrees (Fahrenheit) to global temperatures each year. Icebergs are melting as a result. Bet on Tyquan Thornton anytime touchdown, kill a polar bear.

Obesity: When was the last time you saw someone working out while betting on a sportsbook app? This is easier than connecting the dots with two numbers.

Poverty: I mean, this one is self-explanatory to anyone who was betting on Tyquan Thornton to score a touchdown.

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Ableism: All I’m saying is it’s probably time to retire the term “handicap.”

Fake News: Oh, right, sure, like I’m going to believe those NFL injury reports

Ignoring wife and children an hour before lock for DFS contests: I mean, I would never, but I’ve heard of husbands doing this. (Related: Giving toddlers baths with one hand while furiously late-swapping off the chalk with the other.)

Pandemics: Math is simple here. Sports bettors stay in their house, are not exposed to normal amounts of germs, then are forced to leave their house every so often (times when a sports bettor might need to leave their house include when the DoorDash app goes down, and … well, I think that’s it), are then blasted with germs, their immune system can’t handle it, novel viruses erupt. Look out for my paper on this in a forthcoming edition of JAMA.

And lastly …

Mass extinction events: Think about it: There are plenty of very smart, math-centric, algorithm-using brainiac types out there betting on sports for a living. So if all these nerds are busy figuring out if betting the Cowboys laying 3.5 points against the Eagles is a +EV wager, who’s running the numbers on potential asteroid strikes? Hmmmmmmm? Who? Think about that when we’re blown to smithereens. 

And now, from nonsense to more nonsense …

The +1000 or more parlay of the week

Now we’re 0-13. I’m feeling the pressure. To be fair, I was 0-16 last year and won this in both week 17 and the wild card round, so please know that all hope is not lost.

This week at DraftKings, it’s Justin Fields over 62.5 yards rushing, the 49ers laying 11 to the Seahawks at home, Khalil Shakir over 31.5 receiving yards, and Javonte Williams over 62.5 rushing yards. This comes in at +1057.

Rationale? Justin Fields’ rushing yards against the Lions in their last three matchups: 147, 132, 104. The 49ers are clearly superior to the Seahawks and are clearly playing with a chip on their shoulder. The Chiefs have held No. 1 receivers down all year, but secondary receivers have popped; furthermore, Shakir has cleared this number five out of his last six games. And Javonte Williams, assuming the game stays close, should get fed early and often.

The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose

Down to 6-7. That’s really all we need to know right now.

This week, at +160 at BetMGM, nothing stands out, but if I have to pick … Niners giving 4.5 points to the Seahawks, Colts getting 8 points against the Bengals, and Saints even against the Panthers. 

Favorite that makes me nervous

Missed this one — said the Texans made me nervous as 3-point favorites. They beat the Broncos by five points. Onward. Upward. 

This week? Right back to the well. There is no way the Chargers should be favored at “home” against the Broncos. The Chargers are a failed state. If anything, this should be pick’em, not a field goal. 

Player props I like

Went 1-4 last week, down to 18-27 — not great, Bob. This is a disaster. I truly hope no one is reading this.  

This week, well … just look at my parlay card above. I absolutely love the Fields and Shakir overs, so let’s just stop there.

Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?

What do YOU THINK?!?!?

My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week

Pulled up to 5-8 after taking the under in the Texans-Broncos affair. This week, I like over 52 in the Eagles-Cowboys Sunday night game. No way either team can take their foot off the gas here. No lead is safe. I expect fireworks.

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