It’s not the sexiest game on the board with the Texans and Jets hooking up outdoors at MetLife field, but our NFL betting picks see value in fading both offenses early on in what should be a sloppy weather game.
The 7-5 Houston Texans will look to climb the AFC South ladder with a win this Sunday at the breezy and possibly wet MetLife Stadium vs. Zach Wilson and the New York Jets. NFL odds favor the Texans, and rightfully so.
With C.J. Stroud and the indoor offense of the Texans rolling into what is expected to be a rough-weathered game, should bettors expect some slow football out of the gates?
Texans vs Jets odds
Texans vs Jets predictions
The New York Jets took plenty of professional money this week that moved the +6 spread to as short as +5. This was before the news that Zach Wilson was going to be the starter for the rest of the season. This is less of a vote of confidence on the Jets than it is a knock on the Houston Texans offense in these conditions.
Houston comes into this game as the No. 10 scoring offense at 23.4 points per game, but there is a reason that this total has fallen from 38.5 to 33, and that’s the NFL weather.
The weather report for the entire Northwest is not looking good. The Meadowlands is expected to have winds of 20 mph with sustained gusts of 28 mph. There is also a 30% chance of rain. The wind is more of a concern than the rain and is what’s driving this total down.
C.J. Stroud’s numbers are worse on the road this year with a completion percentage two points lower away from Houston and a yards-per-pass mark substantially lower at -1.8 yards. The rookie has also played the majority of his road games in warm or indoor venues which include Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Carolina — all three losses.
This is going to be a game the Houston offense has to adapt quickly vs. a very good New York defense that ranks second on the season in success rate.
Stroud exited the last game after appearing to take a hit to the head but cleared the in-game protocol. He was sacked three times and took eight hits in total. He will also be without receiver Tank Dell meaning Nico Collins will see plenty of Sauce Gardner or D.J. Reed who rank fourth and fifth at their position respectively, per Pro Football Focus.
Tight end Dalton Schultz is also working his way back from a hamstring injury and Noah Brown has been in and out of the lineup this year missing six games. There is talk that Houston will run more two-TE sets this week with the injury to Dell.
All of this is leading to a low-scoring first half and with a total of 17.5, I’m taking the Under now at -115 before those 17.5s turn into 16.5s.
I have no faith in this New York offense and both head coaches know each other very well with their time in San Francisco. The weather is going to make things ugly, especially early, and getting this Under on the good side of 17 is key here.
My best bet: First half Under 17.5 (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Texans vs Jets same-game parlay
I had to adjust the 1H total to 19.5 as bet365 only has incremented totals, so the choice was either 16.5 or 19.5.
Stroud has only tossed five picks all year, but four of them have come in the last four games and these will be the most difficult passing conditions he’s faced all year. On top of that, he has to deal with elite corners without the aid of Dell.
Both sides’ rushing games should be busy but it’s Dameon Pierce showing the best EV as THE BLITZ has him for 57.9 rushing yards. He has taken back the lead-role duties and had 15 carries to Devin Singletary’s eight last week.
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Texans vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis
There has been a lot of movement in this game’s markets. Houston sat as a 4.5-point road favorite on the look-ahead, reopened at -6, and then took some pro money that moved that from -6 to -5. The news of Wilson starting has also moved the spread toward the home side as that number stood at -4 as of Wednesday.
Atlanta closed as a 2.5-point road favorite at MetLife vs. the Jets last week in that lackluster 13-8 Falcons’ victory. Betting market rankings have the Texans as 2.1 points better than the Falcons on a neutral field. That puts Houston at around -4.6 here but Wilson is worth more than Tim Boyle so that -4 looks efficient.
The bottom of this total fell out after sitting at 38.5 on the look-ahead, 37 on the re-open, and then as low as 33 as of Wednesday. Twenty-plus mph winds and likely rain have driven confidence in the Under but it is tough to see this getting much lower. Bettors did see a 29.5-point total on Thursday, but more than four points for weather is significant.
Bettors might want to follow the weather report because if this weather isn’t as bad as predicted, there could be a window to get the Over at a low number.
Looking at injuries, Houston is without WR Tank Dell which is a big blow to the offense. They still have Nico Collins who had 190-plus yards last week, but the Jets are elite in coverage and Houston is running low on healthy secondary passing options with Dalton Shultz also banged up. However, the TE did return to practice on Wednesday but was limited. Outside of that, there aren’t many key names on the initial injury report to worry about on either side.
I’m not sure I want to bet on Wilson as it seems he would rather watch than step back in after Tim Boyle did nothing and is getting cut. Brett Rypien was signed off the Seattle practice squad and Trevor Siemian is also there. This game could look a lot like last week’s Atlanta vs. New York game but likely with worse passing conditions.
Texans vs Jets betting notes to know
- Allen Lazard found his way back into the New York lineup and ran 22 routes last week and could soak up No. 3 duties if rookie Jason Brownlee can’t go.
- Brevin Jordan had his best game at TE last week for the Texans with Schultz on the shelf, catching three of four passes for 60-plus yards. Even if Schultz goes this week, Jordan could be a sneaky good Over play on any total equal or below last week’s which was 23.5 yards.
- Dalvin Cook had his heaviest rushing workload last week since Week 1 with nine carries for 35 yards, but he also lost a key fumble in the second quarter.
- Breece Hall has been brutal on the ground and has failed to top 28 rushing yards in four straight games. He does have 31 catches for 236 yards receiving over his last six games, though — including eight targets on 42 dropbacks last week.
- New York receiver Xavier Gipson led the Jets in catches (five) and yards (55) last week.
- Noah Brown had just two targets for zero catches last week in his return to the line-up after missing two games. It could be a good buy-low point for him with Dell out but the weather might zap that value. If he throws up another dud, he could be a great target for Week 15.
Texans vs Jets betting trend to know
The Houston Texans have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 2 of their last 10 away games (-5.65 Units / -52% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Jets.
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Texans vs Jets game info
|MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
|Sunday, December 10, 2023
|1:00 p.m. ET
|Jets +6, 37.5
Texans vs Jets latest injuries
Texans vs Jets weather
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