Friday, March 1, 2024

What Is The Betting Line On The Super Bowl?

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The Super Bowl is like Christmas for sports bettors.

Online sportsbooks release hundreds of betting markets, so the options are nearly endless. On Super Bowl Sunday, the 49ers were slight favorites on the moneyline and spread.

The Super Bowl is the most wagered-on sporting event in the U.S. In 2023, an estimated 50 million Americans wagered roughly $16 billion on Super Bowl 57. With sports betting still becoming legalized in more states, that number is expected to rise with Super Bowl 58.

With so many sportsbooks to choose from, bettors need to know what the betting lines are and how they compare across different books. After all, you want to ensure you’re getting the best possible odds before placing your wager.

Are the Super Bowl Lines the Same at All Sportsbooks?

No, Super Bowl lines are not the same at all online sportsbooks. However, they’re usually pretty similar.

In Super Bowl 58 between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, for example, you’re not going to see the Chiefs as -300 moneyline favorites at one sportsbook and +300 underdogs at another.

That’s because sportsbooks are following the general industry consensus and public perception. That leaves a little wiggle room for odds to differ slightly, but you won’t find substantial differences for the most part.

For instance, FanDuel Sportsbook has the 49ers favored by 2.5 points on the spread, while DraftKings Sportsbook has them favored by 2 points. It’s a disparity, but a small one. The lines are subject to fluctuation, too.

You might see a half-point difference on the spread or Over/Under, but probably not much more than that.

Moneyline odds will be comparable as well, and in some cases exactly the same. FanDuel has San Francisco as a -130 favorite while DraftKings has -122 odds on the Niners.

It’s still worth price shopping at different Super Bowl betting apps to see if you can gain an edge, but don’t expect to find a big one.

Why Do Super Bowl Sports Betting Lines Change & Move?

Super Bowl odds change for several reasons.

The main one is sportsbooks responding to public perception. As mentioned, the Super Bowl attracts many bets from casual and expert sports bettors alike.

With so much action coming in, Super Bowl betting sites want their lines to be as accurate as possible. If the odds are off by even a little, it could end up costing a sportsbook millions of dollars.

Accordingly, sportsbooks will adjust the lines as needed based on which sides bettors are taking. If a bunch of money starts pouring in on the 49ers, for instance, and they end up with 70% of the handle, sportsbooks will adjust the odds to make San Francisco a heavier favorite and Kansas City a bigger underdog.

The lines also move because of the two-week lead-up to the Super Bowl. That gives sportsbooks extra time to assess the betting trends and alter their lines as needed.

Lastly, Super Bowl lines can also be affected by injury updates or major news relating to the two teams. If Christian McCaffrey tore his ACL during practice the week before the Super Bowl or Aaron Rodgers goes missing in a cave somewhere, that’s going to shift the odds considerably.

Calculating Super Bowl Betting Payouts

Before placing a bet on the Super Bowl, it’s important to know how much you stand to win.

Fortunately, Super Bowl betting payouts are easy to calculate with some simple math.

Most U.S. sportsbooks offer American odds, which are based around 100. Odds with a minus sign represent a favorite and indicate that you’ll need to wager more money for a significant payout, whereas odds with a plus sign are considered less likely to hit and come with higher payouts.

For example, say the Super Bowl has the following moneyline odds:

If you wager $100 on the Chiefs, you stand to win $105 in profit. If you wager $100 on the 49ers, your profit would be $83.33. To win $100 on San Francisco, you’d need to risk $120.

Most sportsbooks do the math for you and show your potential payout when you place your bet. If you want to crunch the numbers yourself, follow these formulas:

  • If the odds are negative, change the number to positive and do 100/odds * stake = profit
  • If the odds are positive, odds/100 * stake = profit

Calculating your payouts by hand can be a helpful pre-game strategy, but you probably want to avoid doing it during the game, as live betting odds can change quickly.

Common Super Bowl Betting Lines

Unlike regular-season NFL games, which can feature lopsided matchups with large spreads and moneyline odds, the Super Bowl is more likely to be an equal contest with close to even odds.

The spread will typically be around a field goal and is usually less than a touchdown. The spread for the last 15 Super Bowls has been less than 7 points, indicating a close matchup. Ten of those games had spreads of a field goal (3 points) or less.

Moneyline odds are usually close to even, as you typically won’t see one side listed as a major underdog. These odds will often be in the +/- 100 to 200 range, as there usually isn’t an obvious favorite. Bettors should prepare to split hairs and go with their guts when deciding which team to back.

Lastly, the Over/Under tends to be a bit higher for the Super Bowl because it often features two talented quarterbacks and potent offenses. Super Bowl 58 has an Over/Under around 47, which is the lowest Super Bowl total since 2016. However, it’s still several points higher than the regular-season average, which is typically in the 43-45 point range.

Now you know what to look for when exploring Super Bowl lines. If you come across something drastically different, it could be worth investigating further.

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